How to Identify Value Bets in Football

A good number of experienced punters find value for money in higher odds and value betting is one of their many strategies. Nowadays online betting is viewed as a source of income with bettors developing strategies on betting and balance their bankroll using bookmaker’s odds. Finding value in odds is considered difficult but not nearly impossible.

Value Bets in football

After a deep understanding of a team possibility of winning, punters can take advantage of the bookies odds markets especially if the underdog is likely to lose and this brings out the value bet (whereby an odd is developed from a bet with added value). Only after doing the research and the estimations, is when you are able to predict the possible outcome therefore betting the bookies offered odds.

Value betting is available in sports betting since you cannot predict accurate final results based on exact statistical possibilities and previous match analysis. In virtual games, the gaming probabilities are determined by a strict law that predicts the final outcome and therefore it’s easier to win on cards or roulette than sports events if the probability pattern is determined. In the European casino games, there is the theoretical long-term chance of winning on a roulette, than football since sports events have no predictable pattern and doesn’t involve a probability formula.

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How do we find value in football bets?

A common question asked by punters across the world the particular things to look at when finding value bets in football include:

  1. Find the margin of error; bookies offer odds depending on factors like team form, ability to score and previous home/away results. The bookie offers odds on a hunch or estimation of a final results and here you can find the margin of error on the odds value. Lower odds don’t particularly mean that the team is a favourite to win and this error offers punters to win with the high stake amount.
  2. Review pre-match and post-match results; a regular assessments helps in developing an eye for value betting and your bettor placed to correctly predict the future outcomes.
  3. Develop a never give up attitude; being persistent in finding values on bets and a betting strategy will make betting smooth. Also increases the chances of winning since you are better positioned to win than unexperienced bettor.

In general bookies offer odds on a hunch, especially the crowd effect (whereby a particular shift in a group’s direction, triggers a movement and therefore odds are adjusted according to this movement). A team’s form is determined by information on a number of factors the main being head to head stats and deep analysis of the players better positions you to win.

Despite all the data in the world in all comes down to luck, there are two main things required in sports value betting and they are;

  • Knowledge understanding and detailed information on league and other bet markets.
  • Deeper understanding on how a bookie sets odd values in sports betting and look for fixed odd values (usually consistent odd values).

Best bookmakers for a value betting

An odd represents the likelihood of a possible outcome occurring and bookies offer variable odds. There are a lot of factors that affect the odd value and you can find value in sports betting. An experienced punter will spend weeks and even a day analysing pre-match games. This provides the bettor with almost exact possible outcomes.

If you are lucky the value bets can increase your bankroll significantly. Despite doing all the hard work in analysing teams, you will need a little bit of luck and this leaves the margin of error. The need for knowledge is to reduce the loss rate since it’s not possible to get accurate results every time. As they say you will win some and loss some. It all depends on your experience and how lucky you are.

How to calculate a Value Bet

There are different formulas but the common value bet formula is shown below:

Value= (probability x odd offered) – 1.

An example: let’s give you an example of a match between two football teams. Let’s say a Premier League match between Liverpool and Manchester United and the probability of winning is 50% and 20% respectively. The assigned odd values are 2.55 and 3.33.

1st example (50/100 x 2.55) -1 = 0.275

2nd example (20/100 x 3.33) -1 = -0.334

Another formula used is as follows:

Probability = 1/decimal odds

Both formulas are used by punters. Your estimated percentage on chances should be higher than the probabilities of the odds and higher differences mean more profitability, on the value bet. Finding value in bet is difficult especially on specific sets of odds since there is no formula or a law in doing so and for a bet to be considered as a value is when the actual chance of a win exceeds the estimation of the bookmaker. A better understanding of finding value in bets increases the chances of success.

Values bets explained

The simple definition of value bets is to find interest in bets using mathematical formulas to calculated value and you expect to have more than your opponent. There is a lot of information on value bets and majority of punters try to compare their assumptions with the bookies odds. At first, the calculations will seem of no use but with time you will better understand how a bookie works and you will be better equipped to bet on odds.

However, the odd value for a bet may not seem appealing at first and therefore you may resort, to higher odds without first accepting the fact that you are seeking a marginal profit, no matter how small they are and you may not feel comfortable. Value bets is simply understanding what the bookie has to offer and what you have to give, considering the possible outcome. Although backing the bookies lower odds is considered the case by majority of inexperienced bettors this is not correct and without backing such assumptions with stats, you are therefore limited in terms of value betting.

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